LAS CRUCES – WAC play is set to begin this week, and teams are beginning their journey to both a title and an automatic bid in the NCAA tournament.
Last season's championship game saw New Mexico State defeat Grand Canyon for its third straight title, and the Aggies will be trying to fend off the competition once again this time around.
Here's a full breakdown of each team's play so far and my standings predictions starting from the bottom and working our way to thetop.
9. Chicago State
Last season's record:3-29 (0-16WAC)
This season's non-conference record: 4-11
The Cougars have already surpassed last season’s win total of three games, but they haven't played the stiffest competition thus far. Three of this season's four wins have come against either Division II, Division III or NAIA schools, making an 89-81 win overSIU Edwardsville the only Division I victory.
Leading the way is 5-foot-11 junior Xavier Johnson, who is averaging a team-high 17.7 points on some impressive 44 percent shooting from deep. The point guard is a constant scoring threat despite being undersized, although his 0.65 turnover ratio (44 assists and 68 turnovers) leaves room for improvement.
Most telling stat:Chicago State has a turnover percentage of 27.3.That's the second-highest percentage in the country, according to KenPom.The issuebegins with Johnson at the one spot, but Rajeir Jones is actually the only player on the team with a turnover ratio over 1.0 (17 assists and 16 turnovers).
WAC record prediction:Chicago State is still a ways away from being competitive in the WAC. Even with other conference teams struggling, my prediction is that the Cougars will go 0-16 once again.
8. UTRGV
Last season's record:20-17 (9-7WAC)
This season's non-conference record: 4-9
The Vaqueros are led by 6-foot-3 grad Jordan Jackson, who is averaging a team-high 14.7 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting from the field.The veteran guard gets to the rim and the free throw line at will, but his average of 3.2 turnovers per game needs work.
One of the most interesting players on the team, though, is Javon Levi. The5-foot-11 junior is averaging 8.1 assists per contest with an assist rate of 53 percent, which is ranks first in the country.
Levi missed four games from Nov. 16-30, but his return should provide a major boost once conference play begins.
Most telling stat:Despite being one of the better defending teams in the WAC, UTRGV only averages 92.8 points per 100 possessions. That ranks 306th in the country, according to KenPom.
WAC record prediction:With the return of Levi and astrong defensive presence,UTRGV is a sleeper team in the WAC. However, its lack of offensive potency leaves it with a projected conference record of 6-10.
7. California State Bakersfield
Last season's record:18-16 (7-9)
This season's non-conference record: 6-9
The Roadrunners are led by 6-foot-5 forward Taze Moore, who is one of the better two-way players in the conference. In addition to averaging a team-high 11.3 points per game, the redshirt sophomore also leads the team insteals(20) and blocks(15).
One rising player on the team is Ronne Readus, a 6-foot-9 junior who has been coming on and off the bench this season. The big man leads the team with 29 offensive rebounds this season despite averaging only 13.5 minutes per contest.
Cal State Bakersfield is able to stay in games due in part to its offensive rebounding. According to KenPom, the Roadrunners are seventh in the country in offensive rebound percentage (37.2 percent), and they convert that into an average of 12.4 second-chance points per contest.
Most telling stat:No player on the Roadrunners has started more than 11 of the team's 15 games.This is a group that's still experimenting with rotations, which is why it has a bench minutes percentage of 38. That's the 45th-highest percentage in the country and second only to UTRGV (40.9 percent) in the WAC, according to KenPom.
WAC record prediction:Cal State Bakersfield seems to still be searching for its identity entering WAC play, but the talent is there. However, with not a lot of signs of improvement yet, I see the Roadrunners finishing with the same 7-9 conference record as last season.
T5. UMKC
Last season's record:11-21 (6-10)
This season's non-conference record: 7-7
The Kangaroos are led by 6-foot-10 senior Javan White, who is averaging team highs of 11.5 points and 7.4 boards per game. He has 36 of the team’s 126 offensive rebounds, making him an integral part of the team.
The wildcard, however,is 6-foot-3 senior Rob Whitfield. Everyone expected the team's top returning scorerfrom last season (11 points per game) to take the next step this time around with the transferring of lead scorer Xavier Bishop, but that hasn'tbeen the case.
Whitfield is averaging less points per game (11 down to 9.1),less minutes per game (30.3 down to 26.5) and he's shooting worsefrom the field (41.4 percent down to 37.5 percent). The Roos definitely need more out of Whitfieldif they want to compete in the WAC this season.
Most telling stat:UMKC is allowing opponents to attempt 22 free throws per game compared to its 14.7 attempts per game, and teams have a 45.8 percent free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) against the Roos. That'sthe 14th-highest rate in the country, according to KenPom.
WAC record prediction:Despite not having the most discipline on defense, UMKC still has potential to rise through the WAC ranks if it keeps shooting the three well (34.7 percent so far). But, for now, 8-8is a safe projected conference record.
T5. Grand Canyon
Last season's record:20-14 (10-6 WAC)
This season's non-conference record: 5-9
The Antelopes are led by the duo of Carlos Johnson and Alessandro Lever, who are averaging a combined 29.1 points per game. But that hasn’t been enough to prevent a disappointing start for a team that reached the WAC title game last season.
Grand Canyon does have a rising star in Jovan Blacksher Jr., who is on thefast trackfor the WAC Freshman of the Year award. The young guard is already averaging 11 points and a team-high 3.6 assists per contest.
St. John's transfer Mikey Dixon also recently got deemed eligible, and the 6-foot-2 redshirt junior is already averaging 12.5 points in his first two games.
Most telling stat:With 14 games in the books, Grand Canyon only has two wins against teams with above .500 records (Montana State and Eastern Illinois) so far.
WAC record prediction:Despite dealing with injuries to start the season, there's no avoiding the fact that the Lopes have lost games they shouldn't lose. An 82-73 loss to Davenport, a Division II team, and a 70-58 loss to Fordhamare some prime examples. Although Grand Canyon can certainly turn things around, a projected conference record of 8-8 is fair for now.
T3. Utah Valley
Last season's record:25-10 (12-4 WAC)
This season's non-conference record: 6-9
The Wolverines are led byIsaiah White, a 6-foot-7 junioraveraging a team-high 16.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. The veteran guard isa walking double double, and he's averaging8.3 free throwattempts per contest.
White is one of four players on the team averaging double-digit points per game, but an unsung hero on the squad is Emmanuel Olojakpoke.
The 6-foot-8 senior initially came off the bench, but he has made the last 10 starts due to his elite rim protecting skills. Olojakpoke is averaging 2.8 blocks per game despite only playing an average of 17.1 minutes per contest.
Most telling stat:The Wolverines saw a ridiculous 79.6 percent of last season’s scoring either transfer away or graduate this past summer. That's part of the reason why they went from averaging 108.5 points per 100 possessions last season (96th in the country) to just 96.4 points this season (257th in the country), according to KenPom.
WAC record prediction:Despite being in what could be described as a rebuilding season, Utah Valley still has a fairly-balanced dose of both offense and defense. The Wolverines aren't who they were last season, but they still have a projected conference record of 9-7.
T3. Seattle
Last season's record:18-15 (6-10WAC)
This season's non-conference record: 7-8
The Redhawks are led by 6-foot-1 junior Terrell Brown, who is averaging a conference-high 20.5 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting from the field. The point guard doesn't shoot the three often and instead thrives off of getting to the line, where he is averaging 3.8 made free throws per contest.
Brown is one of Seattle’s top three scorers from lastseason, and all of said playersare back in the mix this time around. Seniors Morgan Means and Myles Carter are the other two, which helps this team have an average experience of2.47 years per player. That's the sixth-highest average in the country, according to KenPom.
Most telling stat:Seattle's biggest struggle this season is behind the arc, where it's only shooting27.5 percent. That's the338th worst percentage in the country, according to KenPom. Both Means and Carter shot at least 37 percent from behind the arc last season, but neither are shooting above 29 percent so far this season.
WAC record prediction:Seattle has a lot of things going right for it entering conference play. The Redhawks have the top scorer in the WAC, the second-most experienced group and enough capable shooters to break out of an early slump from deep. That's why I have them with a projected conference record of 9-7.
2. California Baptist
Last season's record:16-15 (7-9 WAC)
This season's non-conference record:9-4
The Lancers are led by last season's WAC Newcomer of the Year, Milan Acquaah. The 6-foot-3 junioris averaging team highs of 19.2 points and 6.5 assists on 36.5-percent shooting from the field.
According to KenPom, 34.3 percent of Cal Baptist's possessions end with the ball in Acquaah's hands. That's the 11th-highest percentage in the country, but the Lancers still have other options.
Fellow guard Ferron Flavors Jr. is averaging 14.8 points per game on 42.3 percent shooting from deep, and 6-foot-7 big man De'jon Davis is averaging 10.9 points and a team-high 8.7 boards per game.
The Lancers aren't short on weapons, although it's worth noting that a 68-60 win over UC Irvine is the only win they have this season against a team that KenPom has in the top 200 out of 353 programs.
Most telling stat:This stat comes courtesy of Braiden Bell, the play-by-play voice of California Baptist basketball. The Lancers lead the conference in points per game (82.7), assists per game (15.8), 3-point percentage (38.1 percent) and free throw percentage (77.1 percent).
WAC record prediction:Despite not being tested much in non-conference play, there's no denying that California Baptist has all the ingredients for a dangerous team in the WAC. That's why they havea projected conference record of 10-6.
1. New Mexico State
Last season's record:30-5 (15-1 WAC)
This season's non-conference record:9-6
The Aggies are led by senior Trevelin Queen, a 6-foot-6 small forwardaveraging 14.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest.
Also in the mix isthe most improved playerin the WAC so far, Jabari Rice. The redshirt sophomore isaveraging more points per game (3.4 up to 12.7) andmore rebounds per game (2.2 rebounds up to 4.6)in an expanded role this season.
Throw in the return of seniors AJ Harris and Clayton Henry along with the recent eligibility of UTEP transfer Evan Gilyard II, and the three-time defending WAC champs are the clear favorites to defend their title this time around.
Most telling stat:Despite playing nearly all of non-conference play as a shell of its usual self, New Mexico State is still averaging 101.7 points per 100 possessions. That's second only to California Baptist (103.2) in the WAC, according to KenPom.
WAC record prediction: With threats such as Grand Canyon and Utah Valley not playing as well as last season, New Mexico State is in good shape to defend its conference title. It's hard to predict a team will goundefeated, but aprojection of 15-1 still makes the Aggiesthe undisputed top team in the WAC.
Series predictions
1. New Mexico State: California Baptist (1-1), Seattle (2-0), Utah Valley (2-0), Grand Canyon (2-0), UMKC (2-0),California State Bakersfield (2-0), UTRGV (2-0), Chicago State (2-0)= 15-1
2. California Baptist: New Mexico State (1-1), Seattle (1-1), Utah Valley (1-1), Grand Canyon (1-1), UMKC (1-1),California State Bakersfield (1-1), UTRGV (2-0), Chicago State (2-0) = 10-6
T3. Seattle: New Mexico State (0-2), California Baptist (1-1), Utah Valley (1-1),Grand Canyon (1-1), UMKC (1-1), California State Bakersfield (2-0), UTRGV (1-1), Chicago State (2-0) = 9-7
T3. Utah Valley: New Mexico State (0-2), California Baptist (1-1), Seattle (1-1), Grand Canyon (1-1), UMKC (1-1), California State Bakersfield (1-1), UTRGV (2-0), Chicago State (2-0) = 9-7
T5. Grand Canyon: New Mexico State (0-2), California Baptist (1-1), Seattle (1-1), Utah Valley (1-1), UMKC (1-1), California State Bakersfield (1-1), UTRGV (1-1), Chicago State (2-0)= 8-8
T5. UMKC: New Mexico State (0-2), CaliforniaBaptist (1-1), Seattle (1-1), Utah Valley (1-1), Grand Canyon (1-1), California State Bakersfield (1-1), UTRGV (1-1), Chicago State (2-0) = 8-8
7. California State Bakersfield: New Mexico State(0-2), California Baptist (1-1), Seattle (0-2), Utah Valley (1-1), Grand Canyon (1-1), UMKC (1-1), UTRGV (1-1), Chicago State (2-0) = 7-9
8. UTRGV: New Mexico State (0-2), California Baptist (0-2), Seattle (1-1), Utah Valley (0-2), Grand Canyon (1-1), UMKC (1-1), CaliforniaState Bakersfield (1-1), Chicago State (2-0) = 6-10
9. Chicago State: New Mexico State (0-2), California Baptist (0-2), Seattle (0-2), Utah Valley (0-2), Grand Canyon (0-2), UMKC (0-2), California State Bakersfield (0-2), UTRGV (0-2) = 0-16
Justin Martinez can be reached at (575) 541-5455, JMMartinez@lcsun-news.com or @JTheSportsDude on Twitter. Make sure to subscribeto the Las Cruces Sun-News to stay up to date with all local sports.
